Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
