Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
